Venture firms due to raise

How often this is right. We replayed the model at 42 quarter-ends from 2015–2025, letting it see only filings that were public on each date, and checked who filed a new fund within the next 12 months (8,742 cases). Of firms it marked inside or past their window, about 1 in 4 (26%) filed — 1.6× the 17% rate for all firms with a rhythm. The high-confidence firms — large, regular, close to their own gap — filed about 1 in 3 (37%), 2.4×, on years the rule was not tuned on. Firms marked quiet filed 7%.

The month is a pointer, not a date: 45% of filings landed within six months of it. When a flagged firm did file, the median wait was about 6 months. Use this list to decide whom to watch and when to call, not as a forecast of a specific week. The full test.

Follow any of these. Name the firms you cover and the morning email opens with the ones that moved — a filing, an amount stated, a firm entering its window. Free, seven days behind; the seat is the same thing at 6am on the day.

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What this cannot see. A fund that is already raising has not filed yet — a Form D is due within 15 days of the first sale, so the filing arrives after the first close, not before it. That is exactly why this page exists: the filing is late news, the rhythm is not. It also cannot see an evergreen structure that never closes a new fund, a firm deploying from a balance sheet or a family office, or a firm that has quietly stopped raising. A firm past twice its own gap is not listed here at all, because at that distance the honest word is quiet, not due.

Three funds is the minimum for a rhythm and three is a thin sample; the Raises column is there so you can weigh it. The window is a month, not a date, and firms miss their own windows all the time.